The Senate math

The path to a Senate majority

The 14 contested seats, sorted by the lead in the polling average as of Nov 2. Republicans hold 43 seats that are not in play and Democrats 43 (including 2 independents who caucus with them).

R lead

Non-R lead

R seatsR

Florida

R+6.3

44

Nebraska

R+1.5

45

South Carolina

R+1.5

46

Iowa

D+0.4

47

Kansas

D+2.2

48

Maine

D+2.2

49

Alaska

D+2.6

50

↑ If Republicans win the top 7 they reach 50 and keep the majority with the vice president’s tie-breaking vote.
↓ If Democrats win the bottom 8 they reach 51.

Ohio

D+2.8

51

Texas

D+2.8

52

Michigan

D+4.1

53

Minnesota

D+6.2

54

New Hampshire

D+7.3

55

Georgia

D+9.5

56

North Carolina

D+10.4

57

PollCheck polling averages as of Nov 2; Alaska, final ranked-choice round. The "R seats" column shows Republican seats if they win that race and every race above it. Nebraska: independent Dan Osborn says he will not caucus with either party.

How the odds have moved

Probability of winning the Senate majority in the Decision Desk HQ forecast, on the dates it published the figure.

Decision Desk HQ (forecast, newsletter and press citing its figures), Jul 15 to Nov 2. Where DDHQ published only one party’s figure, the other is 100 minus it.

The national mood

Decision Desk HQ polling averages, May to October.

Trump job approval

Generic congressional ballot

Decision Desk HQ, figures published in its newsletter (publication date). Another average as of Nov 1: PollCheck, generic ballot D 50.7% · R 42.6%.

What each party needs

Now: 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats (45 plus 2 independents). The majority is 51, or 50 plus the vice president's tie-breaking vote.
Republicans keep the Senate if they lose no more than 3 seats net; Democrats need a net gain of 4.
Contested Republican seats: North Carolina, Ohio, Maine, Texas, Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, South Carolina and Florida.
Contested Democratic seats: Michigan, New Hampshire, Georgia and Minnesota.
Republicans are defending one seat in a state Harris won (Maine); Democrats, two in states Trump won (Georgia and Michigan).
Decision Desk HQ forecast: 48 Republican seats and 52 Democratic. Probability of a majority: 29% to 36% for Republicans and 64% to 71% for Democrats (Decision Desk HQ as of Nov 2 and Kalshi as of Nov 1).

Contested seats

State	Candidates	Polls
Florida Likely R · held by R	Ashley Moody (R) Angie Nixon (D)	Moody 49.4% · Nixon 43.1% (average as of Nov 2)
South Carolina Lean R · held by R	Darline Graham (R) Annie Andrews (D)	Graham 46.7% · Andrews 45.2% (average as of Nov 2)
Nebraska Lean R · held by R	Pete Ricketts (R) Dan Osborn (independent)	Ricketts 47.2% · Osborn 45.7% (average as of Nov 2)
Alaska Toss-up · held by R	Dan Sullivan (R) Mary Peltola (D)	Peltola 51.1% · Sullivan 48.5% in the final round (average as of Nov 2)
Iowa Toss-up · held by R	Ashley Hinson (R) Josh Turek (D)	Turek 46.3% · Hinson 45.9% (average as of Nov 2)
Kansas Toss-up · held by R	Roger Marshall (R) Adam Hamilton (D)	Hamilton 48.1% · Marshall 45.9% (average as of Nov 2)
Maine Toss-up · held by R	Susan Collins (R) Troy Jackson (D)	Jackson 49.1% · Collins 46.9% (average as of Nov 2)
Ohio Toss-up · held by R	Jon Husted (R) Sherrod Brown (D)	Brown 48.0% · Husted 45.2% (average as of Nov 2)
Texas Toss-up · held by R	Ken Paxton (R) James Talarico (D)	Talarico 48.5% · Paxton 45.7% (average as of Nov 2)
Michigan Lean D · held by D	Mike Rogers (R) Abdul El-Sayed (D)	El-Sayed 48.8% · Rogers 44.7% (average as of Nov 2)
North Carolina Likely D · held by R	Michael Whatley (R) Roy Cooper (D)	Cooper 51.9% · Whatley 41.5% (average as of Nov 2)
Georgia Likely D · held by D	Mike Collins (R) Jon Ossoff (D)	Ossoff 51.6% · Collins 42.1% (average as of Nov 2)
Minnesota Likely D · held by D	Michele Tafoya (R) Peggy Flanagan (D)	Flanagan 48.3% · Tafoya 42.1% (average as of Nov 2)
New Hampshire Likely D · held by D	John E. Sununu (R) Chris Pappas (D)	Pappas 50.1% · Sununu 42.8% (average as of Nov 2)